[Editor’s note] On January 24th, Zhongxiu Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia was announced to have fallen from grace by the Ministry of National Defense, along with Liu Zhenli, the Director of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission. After their downfall, the Central Military Commission will only be left with Chairman Xi Jinping and Zhang Shengmin, who was recently promoted by Xi Jinping himself. Through the purge of these two, Xi Jinping has once again strengthened his control over the military, purging opposition within the armed forces. Zhang Youxia’s fall reflects the escalating internal struggles within China’s bureaucratic monopoly bourgeoisie. As a key pillar maintaining fascist reactionary rule within the traitor group of Zhongxiu, the military has always been a highly contested target among factions within the traitor group. Previously, Bo Xilai’s attempt to mobilize the armed police to control Beijing was an effort to oppose Xi Jinping’s faction. Whether Xi’s faction maintains its rule or other factions attempt a coup, control of the military must be secured first. However, struggle is absolute, and unity is relative. Xi Jinping’s “absolute leadership” is impossible in an absolute sense. To strengthen control over the military, he not only promotes Zhang Shengmin but will also inevitably promote more of his confidants into the Central Military Commission and its key positions. This process will create new political factions representing the interests of other bureaucratic monopoly bourgeoisie groups, leading to new struggles against Xi. It should be noted that the current 20th Central Military Commission members, including Zhang Youxia, are all personally appointed by Xi Jinping, but now some have become opposition factions within Xi’s group.
Regarding Zhang Youxia’s fall, the American imperialists across the ocean also keep a close eye. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken stated that Zhang Youxia’s downfall was due to suspected corruption, seemingly unaware of the internal struggles within China’s bureaucratic monopoly bourgeoisie. Naturally, this is a double act by U.S. imperialism, aimed at easing international relations with Zhongxiu and strengthening mutual collusion. Today, the class contradictions in the U.S. are as fierce as in China, with the people’s struggles against the fascistization of the Trump administration ongoing. Internal conflicts within U.S. monopoly capital over the Epstein case are also intensifying. In this context, covering up China’s class contradictions and internal conflicts of the ruling group is a natural way for U.S. imperialism to hide its own scandals.
Zhang Youxia Fell from Grace on January 24th
[United Morning Post, January 24] Major shake-up in the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party, the Ministry of National Defense announced on Saturday (January 24) that Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Director Liu Zhenli of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission were both under investigation for “serious violations of discipline and law.” Since the 2022 reshuffle, the Central Military Commission has been reduced from seven members to only two—Chairman Xi Jinping and newly appointed Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin.
Since Xi Jinping became the top leader of the CCP in 2012, four former and current vice chairmen of the Military Commission have fallen from grace. The earliest were Xu Caihou and Guo Bosheng; last October, the then-active Vice Chairman He Weidong, who had been largely absent for over half a year, was expelled from the Party. Zhang Youxia is the latest among the active vice chairmen to be investigated, and is the second in over 30 years to face such issues while still in office. Zhang Youxia ranks higher than He Weidong, and is second only to Xi Jinping in the military hierarchy.
Scholars interviewed assess that the simultaneous announcement of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli’s investigations indicates that political issues may outweigh economic ones, possibly involving factional gangs; more military leaders are expected to fall, which could severely impact the morale of the PLA and affect the long-term military development plans. On the other hand, since new theater commanders and joint operations center leaders still need time to familiarize themselves with their duties, the PLA is unlikely to take military action against Taiwan in the short term, and the Taiwan Strait situation will remain relatively stable.
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Earlier, Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli missed the opening and closing ceremonies of the provincial and ministerial-level study sessions on implementing the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session held on Tuesday (January 20) and Friday (January 23), fueling speculation about their investigations which soon spread through foreign media.
Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli’s Fall Involved Formation of Opposition Factions within the Military against Xi Jinping
[United Morning Post, January 25] After the downfall of CCP Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Director Liu Zhenli of the Joint Staff Department, the PLA’s official newspaper, Liberation Army Daily, published an editorial criticizing the two for “seriously trampling and damaging the responsibility system of the Chairman of the Central Military Commission.”
Reviewing official statements over the past ten years, it is common to mention “undermining the responsibility system of the Chairman of the Central Military Commission” when high-ranking military officials at the vice chairman level violate discipline and law seriously. However, the phrase “trampling and damaging” carries a more severe connotation.
Foreign bourgeois scholars suggest Zhang Youxia’s fall may involve “cliques and factions” issues
[United Morning Post, January 25] Kuo Jianwen, a professor at the Political Science Department of Taiwan’s National Chengchi University and a distinguished researcher at the East Asian Institute, analyzed to Lianhe Zaobao that compared to Zhang Shengmin, promoted at the end of last year to vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, Liu Zhenli has a closer relationship with Zhang Youxia. If more senior PLA generals fall, it indicates that Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli may be involved in “cliques and factions.”
Regarding economic issues, Kuo Jianwen believes Zhang Youxia might be involved in procurement scandals related to the Rocket Force and other equipment.
In November 2015, Zhang Youxia served as the first head of the newly established Equipment Development Department of the Central Military Commission, and stepped down in August 2017. According to the PLA’s 2023 announcement, investigations into illegal procurement and bidding activities will focus on events after October 2017. Some analysts believe this was deliberately set up by high-level officials as a “protective barrier” for Zhang Youxia.
Kuo Jianwen further analyzes that the PLA’s network of relationships will be reshuffled, senior generals will be on edge, and the ongoing purge within the military will continue, involving personnel arrangements for the 21st Central Military Commission.
Meanwhile, Kuo Jianwen believes that the Chairman of the Central Military Commission has become a “lonely leader,” unable to trust even those he has worked with or has personal connections with. Those promoted to fill vacancies will also be fearful, causing “everyone to feel uneasy, which will definitely affect the military morale.”
Ding Shufan, honorary professor at Tamkang University’s Institute of East Asian Studies, believes that corruption is not the biggest issue; political accusations turn economic issues into crimes. He judges that the cases of Miao Hu and He Weidong are separate from those of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, and some even suggest that both sides are mutually reporting each other.
Cai Wenxuan, researcher at the Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica, Taiwan, predicts that Zhang Youxia’s fall was inevitable because the Chairman of the Military Commission “no longer trusts anyone,” making it impossible for any influence to remain in the military. Removing Zhang Youxia is also equivalent to a public break with the “Red Second Generation” within the military.
Jie Zhong, associate professor at Tamkang University’s Department of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, analyzes that the military’s big move to consolidate power will prioritize loyalty when selecting personnel, which will have “a significant impact” on the PLA’s operations over the next three years, including long-term military development plans.
After Zhang Youxia’s Fall, Only Xi Jinping and Zhang Shengmin Remain as Members of the 20th Central Military Commission
[United Morning Post, January 26] On January 24, China’s official announcement confirmed that CCP Politburo member and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia, along with CCP Central Military Commission member and Director of the Joint Staff Department Liu Zhenli, are under investigation. As a result, out of the seven members of the 20th Central Military Commission formed in October 2022, only Chairman Xi Jinping and the last-ranked member Zhang Shengmin remain, with the other five having fallen from grace.
Over more than three years of such large-scale purges of high-level PLA officials, it is indeed rare and has caused significant shock to the Chinese military and political scene. It is expected that with Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli under investigation, along with the previous investigation of Vice Chairman He Weidong, Defense Minister Li Shangfu, and Political Work Department Director Miao Hua, the PLA will continue to dig deeper into cases involving these military leaders, and more senior theater and military-level officers will be implicated.
U.S. Worries About Losing Stable Communication Channels with Chinese Military After Zhang Youxia’s Fall
[United Morning Post, January 29] According to Reuters, for Washington, Zhang Youxia’s fall means the Chinese military has lost a respected and relatively well-known senior figure. For years, successive U.S. administrations have worked to establish communication channels with senior Chinese military officers to reduce the risk of accidental conflict between the world’s two largest military powers.
As one of the few senior officers with combat experience, Zhang Youxia was regarded as an important military advisor to Chinese President Xi Jinping. During the Biden administration, Xi Jinping allowed Zhang Youxia to communicate with the U.S. side. As early as May 2012, Zhang Youxia, then a lower-ranking officer, visited the U.S. with a Chinese military delegation for a week, making him one of the better-known Chinese military officers in the U.S.
Former U.S. Air Force general and first East Asia diplomatic chief under the Trump administration, David Stilwell, recalled that Zhang Youxia was the only Chinese officer willing to ride in U.S. military Osprey transport aircraft.
He described Zhang Youxia as “completely different from other PLA generals, fully able to integrate into the U.S. military environment,” enthusiastic about engaging with U.S. soldiers and experiencing American weapons. In the eyes of the U.S., Zhang Youxia is more like a professional soldier than a political officer. Stilwell said, “When Zhang Youxia is gone, you lose a rational voice.”
Drew Thompson, a senior researcher at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University and a former U.S. defense official who has interacted with Zhang Youxia, also believes that Zhang Youxia was the only active senior PLA officer capable of objectively reflecting China’s military strength, weaknesses, and the human costs of war to Xi Jinping.
A senior U.S. government official said that the White House has “no information to share” about the personnel changes in China’s high-level leadership and that the Trump administration is committed to “building a military capable of deterring aggression anywhere in the first island chain.”
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken says closely monitoring Zhang Youxia’s fall, citing “misappropriation of funds” as the reason
[United Morning Post, January 29] After the fall of CCP Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia and CCP member Liu Zhenli, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken said that the U.S. is closely watching the situation and attributed the incident to “corruption.”
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According to AFP, Blinken told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Wednesday (January 28) that the investigation of these officials “is part of a pattern we’ve seen over the past few years, namely internal purges within the military.”
He analyzed: “They (China) have invested heavily in the military, and some of them have embezzled funds. They are trying to address this issue.”
Blinken also said, “This is an internal matter for their system. They obviously have not shared or discussed these situations with us in depth, but it is undoubtedly a focus of our concern.”